Wisconsin’s upcoming election for a seat on the state Supreme Court is drawing attention as a key battleground state readout following the 2024 political landscape. The race is nonpartisan in name only, with prominent Republican donors backing conservative Brad Schimel and Democrats supporting liberal Susan Crawford.
Despite being a nonpartisan race, the outcome will offer clues about the political winds in Wisconsin, a premier swing state. Analysis of the 2020 election shows minimal overall movement but some areas where Republicans made gains, such as in the southwestern Driftless Area. Historically Republican strongholds like the WOW counties are seeing declines in GOP support, with Democrats making modest gains in highly educated, professional-class, white suburban areas.
The Hispanic vote is a wildcard in Wisconsin, with Democrats experiencing erosion in this demographic in November. While Milwaukee County only slightly shifted away from Democrats, Hispanic-majority precincts saw a more significant 10-point shift. However, Democrats maintained a strong margin in the U.S. Senate race in these precincts, suggesting a Trump-specific trend that may allow Democrats to regain ground in the future.
The upcoming Supreme Court election will provide insight into how these shifting trends may impact future elections in Wisconsin, with Republicans hoping to maintain gains in rural areas and Democrats looking to solidify support in suburban and Hispanic communities. The results will be closely watched as a barometer for the state’s changing political landscape.
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