New research presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene indicates that nearly a fifth of the world’s dengue fever burden is attributed to climate change. The study predicts that if emissions continue at their current pace, climate change could be responsible for a 60% increase in dengue incidence by 2050, with some areas seeing spikes of up to 200%. Public health experts have long warned about the impact of global warming on the spread of mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, and recent data supports this concern.
In the Americas, nearly 12 million cases of dengue fever have been recorded this year, nearly triple last year’s total. The United States and Puerto Rico have also seen a significant increase in dengue cases. The study analyzed temperature records and dengue incidence data across 21 countries, finding that mosquitoes carrying dengue transmit the virus most efficiently at temperatures between 68 and 82 degrees Fahrenheit. This suggests that even with reduced greenhouse gas emissions, countries will still experience climate-driven increases in dengue.
The findings underscore the importance of prioritizing vaccines, managing mosquito populations, and preparing healthcare systems for a potential rise in dengue cases. The study also highlights the differential impact of climate change on various regions, with countries like Peru, Mexico, Bolivia, and Brazil experiencing the greatest effects despite not being the hottest or seeing the largest increases in heat deaths. Overall, the study emphasizes the urgent need to address climate change as a key factor in the spread of dengue fever and other mosquito-borne diseases.
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